Nature Climate Change – Advance Online Publication

  • Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 22 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0527-4Projections of temperature often focus on maximum warming levels, with variability less often considered. Investigating decadal variability in models shows those with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity also have a higher chance of super warming, and hiatus periods. Read more »
  • An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 22 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6Exposure to dangerous heat following a major tropical cyclone is possible along coastlines globally. In a warmer world, the population at risk from this combination of extreme weather could rise markedly. Read more »
  • Is adaptation success a flawed concept?
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 22 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0539-0The Paris Agreement established a global goal on adaptation and invites parties to review the effectiveness of adaptation actions. However, the measurement of adaptation success remains elusive. Focusing on the capabilities of households and governments to pursue a range of adaptation futures… Read more »
  • Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 22 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0543-4The publication of the IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 oC paved the way for the rise of the political rhetoric of setting a fixed deadline for decisive actions on climate change. However, the dangers of such deadline rhetoric suggest… Read more »
  • Tropical cyclones and heatwaves
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 22 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0537-2Heatwaves increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. Research now shows that the sequence of a tropical cyclone followed by a heatwave may also occur more often, threatening power grids when air conditioning is needed most. Read more »
  • Niche syndromes reveal climate-driven extinction threat to island endemic conifers
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 15 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0530-9Island species are at risk as the climate changes. Island conifers are used as a model species and a combination of native and non-native occurrence data allows identification of realized, tolerable and fundamental niches; linking to island size provides an estimate of… Read more »
  • Global loss of climate connectivity in tropical forests
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 08 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0529-2Physically connected habitats are required for terrestrial species to shift their liveable ranges as the tropics warm. The authors show that over half of tropical forest area is currently unable to provide such climate connectivity, and that loss of connectivity is accelerating… Read more »
  • Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes
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    Nature Climate Change, Published online: 08 July 2019; doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0520-yMass summertime fish die-offs across 359 Wisconsin lakes are attributed to high lake temperatures during periods of extreme heat, while infectious disease and winter conditions are shown to be poor predictors. Die-offs are projected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100 in… Read more »