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Publications

These are some publications on which CEMAC has had input, some with co-authorship, some with acknowledgement.

Donald Cummins

Li M; Cummins DP (2026) Constrain Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity via Bayesian Composite Likelihood. Econometrics of Climate, Energy, and Green Transition, Emerald, pp. 133-165.

Wells CD; Cummins DP; He H; Smith C (2026) Long run emulator calibration increases warming and sea-level rise projections. Environmental Research Letters, 21, (3), pp. 034008.

Smith C; Cummins DP; Fredriksen H-B; Nicholls Z; Meinshausen M; Allen M; Jenkins S; Leach N; Mathison C; Partanen A-I (2024) fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, (23), pp. 8569-8592.

Cummins DP; Guemas V; Blein S; Brooks IM; Renfrew IA; Elvidge AD; Prytherch J (2024) Reducing Parametrization Errors for Polar Surface Turbulent Fluxes Using Machine Learning. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 190, (3), pp. 13.

Andrew Clarke

Naskar S; Mound JE; Davies CJ; Clarke AT (2026) Thermochemical models of outer core convection with heterogeneous core-mantle boundary heat flux. Journal of Studies of Earth’s Deep Interior, 2.

Clarke AT; Davies CJ; Mason SJ; Naskar S (2026) Accessing the dipole-multipole transition in rapidly rotating spherical shell dynamos. Geophysical Journal International.

Biggin AJ; Davies CJ; Mound JE; Lloyd SJ; Engbers YE; Thallner D; Clarke AT; Bono RK (2026) Mantle heterogeneity influenced Earth’s ancient magnetic field. Nature Geoscience, 19, (3), pp. 345-352.

Julia Crook

Crook J; Hardy S; Methven J; Schwendike J; Yik DJ; Yang G-Y (2025) The structure of Borneo vortices and their relationship with cold surges, the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151, (766).

Crook J; Morris F; Fitzpatrick RGJ; Peatman SC; Schwendike J; Stein TH; Birch CE; Hardy S; Yang G (2024) Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves on tracked mesoscale convective systems over southeast Asia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, (760), pp. 1724-1751.

Anne Barber and Helen Burns

Chagnaud, G., Taylor, C. M., Jackson, L. S., Barber, A., Burns, H., Marsham, J. H., & Birch, C. E. (2026). Mesoscale soil moisture heterogeneity can locally amplify humid heat. Geophysical Research Letters, 53(11).

Helen Burns and Richard Rigby

Watson, C. S., Elliott, J. R., Ebmeier, S. K., Biggs, J., Albino, F., Brown, S. K., Burns, H., Hooper, A., Lazecky, M., Maghsoudi, Y., Rigby, R., and Wright, T. J.: Strategies for improving the communication of satellite-derived InSAR data for geohazards through the analysis of Twitter and online data portals, Geosci. Commun., 6, 75–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-75-2023, 2023.

"Graham, A. M., Pringle, K. J., Pope, R. J.,ÿArnold, S. R., Conibear, L. A., Burns, H., Rigby, R., et al., (2021), Impact of the 2019/2020 Australian megafires on air quality and health,ÿGeoHealth, 5, e2021GH000454. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000454ÿ"

Richard Rigby

"Pope, R. J., Kerridge, B. J., Siddans, R., Latter, B. G., Chipperfield, M. P.,ÿArnold, S. R., et al., (2021), Large enhancements in Southern Hemisphere satellite-observed trace gases due to the 2019/2020 Australian wildfires,ÿJ. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 126, e2021JD034892. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034892.ÿ"

"Marshall, L. R. et al. ?Unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions?. In: JGR Atmospheres (2021). doi: 10.1029/2020JD033578."

"Graham, A. M. et al. ?Impact of the June 2018 Saddleworth Moor wildfires on air quality in northern England?. In: Environmental Research Communications (2020). doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab7b92."

Helen Burns

Chagnaud, G., Taylor, C. M., Jackson, L. S., Barber, A., Burns, H., Marsham, J. H., & Birch, C. E. (2026). Mesoscale soil moisture heterogeneity can locally amplify humid heat. Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2025GL121372. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121372

Maybee, B., Klein, C., Taylor, C. M., Burns, H., & Marsham, J. H. (2025). Homogeneous soil moisture fields suppress Sahelian MCS frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118583. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118583

Phadtare, J.A., Fletcher, J.K., Ross, A.N., Turner, A.G., Schiemann, R.K.H. & Burns, H.L. (2023) Unravelling the mechanism of summer monsoon rainfall modes over the west coast of India using model simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149(757), 3164–3182. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4550

Potter, E.R., Fyffe, C.L., Orr, A. et al. A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 96 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z

Helen Burns & Tamora James

Fletcher, J. K., and Coauthors, 2023: Tropical Africa’s First Testbed for High-Impact Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104, E1409–E1425, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0156.1.

Tamora James

"Parker, D. J., Blyth, A. M., Woolnough, S. J., Dougill, A. J., Bain, C. L., de Coning, E., Diop-Kane, M., Kamga Foamouhoue, A., Lamptey, B., Ndiaye, O., Ruti, P., Adefisan, E. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Antwi-Agyei, P., Birch, C. E., Cafaro, C., Carr, H., Chanzu, B., Clarke, S. J., Coskeran, H., Danuor, S. K., de Andrade, F. M., Diakaria, K., Dione, C., Diop, C. A., Fletcher, J. K., Gaye, A. T., Groves, J. L., Gudoshava, M., Hartley, A. J., Hirons, L. C., Ibrahim, I., James, T. D., Lawal, K. A., Marsham, J. H., Mutemi, J. N., Okogbue, E. C., Olaniyan, E., Omotosho, J. B., Portuphy, J., Roberts, A. J., Schwendike, J., Segele, Z. T., Stein, T. H. M., Taylor, A. L., Taylor, C. M., Warnaars, T. A., Webster, S., Woodhams, B. J., & Youds, L. (2022). The African SWIFT Project: Growing Science Capability to Bring about a Revolution in Weather Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(2), E349-E369. Retrieved Feb 23, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/2/BAMS-D-20-0047.1.xml"

Zhiqiang Cui

"Adams, M. P., Tarn, M. D., Sanchez-Marroquin, A., Porter, G. C. E., O'Sullivan, D., Harrison, A. D., Z. Cui, J. Vergara-Temprado, F. Carotenuto, M. A. Holden, M. I. Daily, T. F. Whale, S. N. F. Sikora, I. T. Burke, J.-U. Shim, J. B. McQuaid, B. J. Murray: A major combustion aerosol event had a negligible impact on the atmospheric ice-nucleating particle population. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032938. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032938, 2020. "

"R. R. Burton?, A. M. Blyth, Z. Cui, J. Groves, B. L. Lamptey, J. K. Fletcher, J.H. Marsham, D. J. Parker and A. Roberts: Satellite-based nowcasting of West African storms has skill at up to four hours lead time, Weather and Forecasting, in review, 2021."

Richard Keane

"Ward N; Fink AH; Keane RJ; Parker DJ (2026) A case study of temperature tendency mechanisms operating over northern Africa during and following midlatitude winter troughs. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 152, (775). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70058"

"Dunn-Sigouin E; Kolstad EW; Wulff CO; Parker DJ; Keane RJ (2025) Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Services, 39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594"

"Keane RJ; Parker DJ; Dunn-Sigouin E; Kolstad EW; Marsham JH (2025) Mid-Latitude Versus Tropical Scales of Predictability and Their Implications for Forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 32, (4). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70055"

"Ward N; Walker DP; Keane RJ; Marsham JH; Scaife AA; Birch CE; Maybee B (2023) Predictability of the East Africa Long Rains through Congo zonal winds. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24, (12). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1185"

"Ward N; Fink AH; Keane RJ; Parker DJ (2022) Upper-level midlatitude troughs in boreal winter have an amplified low-latitude linkage over Africa. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1129"

"Birch CE; Jackson LS; Finney DL; Marsham JM; Stratton RA; Tucker S; Senior CA; Keane RJ; Guichard F; Kendon EJ (2022) Future changes in heatwaves over Africa at the convection-permitting scale. Journal of Climate, 35, (18), pp. 5981-6006. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0790.1"

"Fletcher JK; Birch CE; Keane RJ; Taylor CM; Folwell SS (2022) The effect of Ganges river basin irrigation on pre-monsoon rainfall. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148, (747), pp. 3056-3070. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4218"

"Ward, N, Fink, AH, Keane, RJ, et al. Synoptic timescale linkage between midlatitude winter troughs Sahara temperature patterns and northern Congo rainfall: A building block of regional climate variability. Int J Climatol. 2021; 41: 3153? 3173. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7011"

"Jackson LS; Keane RJ; Finney DL; Marsham JH; Parker DJ; Senior CA; Stratton RA (2019) Regional differences in the response of rainfall to convectively coupled Kelvin waves over tropical Africa. Journal of Climate, 32, (23), pp. 8143-8165. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0014.1"

"Wainwright CM; Marsham JH; Keane RJ; Rowell DP; Finney DL; Black E; Allan RP (2019) ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7"

"Finney, D. L., J. H. Marsham, L. S. Jackson, E. J. Kendon, D. P. Rowell, P. M. Boorman, R. J. Keane, R. A. Stratton, C. A. Senior, 2019: Implications of Improved Representation of Convection for the East Africa Water Budget Using a Convection-Permitting Model. J. Climate, 32, 2109–2129, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0387.1"

Julia Tindall

"Dentith, J. E., Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Tindall, J. C., and Robinson, L. F.: Simulating stable carbon isotopes in the ocean component of the FAMOUS general circulation model with MOSES1 (XOAVI), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3529?3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3529-2020, 2020."

"Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Foley, K. M., Hunter, S. J., Hill, D. J., Chan, W.-L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Stepanek, C., Lohmann, G., Chandan, D., Peltier, W. R., Tan, N., Contoux, C., Ramstein, G., Li, X., Zhang, Z., Guo, C., Nisancioglu, K. H., Zhang, Q., Li, Q., Kamae, Y., Chandler, M. A., Sohl, L. E., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Feng, R., Brady, E. C., von der Heydt, A. S., Baatsen, M. L. J., and Lunt, D. J.: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 16, 2095?2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020."

"Oldeman, A. M., Baatsen, M. L. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., Tindall, J. C., Abe-Ouchi, A., Booth, A. R., Brady, E. C., Chan, W.-L., Chandan, D., Chandler, M. A., Contoux, C., Feng, R., Guo, C., Haywood, A. M., Hunter, S. J., Kamae, Y., Li, Q., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Pontes, G. M., Ramstein, G., Sohl, L. E., Stepanek, C., Tan, N., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., Wainer, I., and Williams, C. J. R.: Reduced El Ni¤o variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble, Clim. Past, 17, 2427?2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021."

"Zhang, Z., Li, X., Guo, C., Otter†, O. H., Nisancioglu, K. H., Tan, N., Contoux, C., Ramstein, G., Feng, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E., Chandan, D., Peltier, W. R., Baatsen, M. L. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Weiffenbach, J. E., Stepanek, C., Lohmann, G., Zhang, Q., Li, Q., Chandler, M. A., Sohl, L. E., Haywood, A. M., Hunter, S. J., Tindall, J. C., Williams, C., Lunt, D. J., Chan, W.-L., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2, Clim. Past, 17, 529?543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021."

Mark Richardson

Regayre LA; Deaconu L; Grosvenor DP; Sexton DMH; Symonds C; Langton T; Watson-Paris D; Mulcahy JP; Pringle KJ; Richardson M; Johnson JS; Rostron JW; Gordon H; Lister G; Stier P; Carslaw KS (2023) Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, (15), pp. 8749-8768.

O'Connor FM; Abraham NL; Dalvi M; Folberth G; Griffiths P; Hardacre C; Johnson BT; Kahana R; Keeble J; Kim B; Morgenstern O; Mulcahy JP; Richardson MG; Robertson E; Seo J; Shim S; Teixeira JC; Turnock S; Williams J; Wiltshire A; Zeng G (2021) Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 2020, pp. 1-49.

Mulcahy JP; Johnson C; Jones CG; Povey AC; Scott CE; Sellar A; Turnock ST; Woodhouse MT; Abraham NL; Andrews MB; Bellouin N; Browse J; Carslaw KS; Dalvi M; Folberth GA; Glover M; Grosvenor DP; Hardacre C; Hill R; Johnson B; Jones A; Kipling Z; Mann G; Mollard J; O'Connor FM; Palmiéri J; Reddington C; Rumbold ST; Richardson M; Schutgens NAJ; Stier P; Stringer M; Tang Y; Walton J; Woodward S; Yool A (2020) Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, (12), pp. 6383-6423.

Seo J; Shim S; Kwon S-H; Boo K-O; Kim Y-H; O’Connor F; Johnson B; Dalvi M; Folberth G; Teixeira J; Mulcahy J; Hardacre C; Turnock S; Woodward S; Abraham L; Keeble J; Griffiths P; Archibald A; Richardson M; Dearden C; Carslaw K; Williams J; Zeng G; Morgenstern O (2020) The Impacts of Aerosol Emissions on Historical Climate in UKESM1. Atmosphere, 11, (10).